Biden Launches a Hail Mary (2024)

As one of the smart kids who insisted President Joe Biden would never agree to debate Donald Trump, I have a particular responsibility to assess why my prediction, shared by millions, now appears to be totally wrong.

I say "appears to be" because my official position on the just-announced debates, planned for June 27 and September 10, is this: I will believe them when I see them. That's how unwise it seems for an incumbent in full cognitive decline to step into a debate octagon with a challenger brimming with pent-up energy from weeks of confinement in a New York courtroom.

But there was Biden on Wednesday morning, in a 14-second video which required five edits to assemble, not only expressing a willingness to debate but wedging in some cranky trash talk ("Make my day, pal"), and an admittedly clever reference to the difficulty of scheduling a debate while Trump's trial drags on ("I hear you're free on Wednesdays").

This decision defies all logic. There is no universe in which Biden pulls off an objectively superior debate performance. But therein lies the answer to the mystery. He doesn't have to actually perform better than Trump. He doesn't have to suddenly persuade voters that the border is functioning and the economy is healthy. That's because he will not be judged by ordinary standards. The expectations for his performance are so low that exceeding them is likely, and that will be the story.

As we saw the morning after Biden's rambling, angry State of the Union address, simply surviving the night will draw enthusiastic plaudits from his defenders in the vast media ecosystem.

And that's precisely what Biden needs amid weeks of stories of waning support and plunging poll numbers. His team has to know that with three long months before the Democratic convention in Chicago, there is a dire need for a shift in narrative.

It won't come from some inspiring speech or new initiative, and world events will do him no favors. There is no Ukrainian victory on the horizon, and if there is an Israeli victory, the world knows it will come in spite of Biden's policies, not because of it.

So it's time for a Hail Mary, and a debate with Trump is it, with the first one aimed at Democratic power brokers as much as TV viewers. Sure, the incumbent needs to give real voters a diversion from his sagging poll numbers, especially in swing states; but what he needs more urgently is imagery that makes it harder for the party to give him the hook before or during the August convention.

Even the expected riots outside the United Center would not outweigh the drama of delegates voting inside the hall to hand the nomination to someone else. While that is hard to imagine in view of the delegate count Biden won during the primary season, the president is well aware of his party's talent for sidestepping some rules and inventing new ones in order to achieve a desired result.

Biden needs some way to insulate himself from that fate. Risky though it may be, debating Trump may provide such protection.

If the first debate is not a disaster, it will be harder to argue that a Biden nomination invites a Trump victory in November. There is a flip side to that coin, of course; if Trump mops the floor with him, even louder drumbeats for his replacement could follow.

So against most measures of strategic wisdom, is debating smart for Biden? The short answer is: it might be.

Aside from the likelihood of receiving fawning accolades if Biden merely completes lucid sentences, there's always the possibility of Trump overplaying his hand. Biden's policies invite as many opportunities for aggressive attack as his infirmities. If Trump shows restraint and calmly reminds America of how much better things were when he was president, even a coherent Biden will face a challenge. But if he comes on too strong, it may strike viewers as elder abuse. Voters may enjoy seeing Trump score points on the issues; not as many people want to see Grandpa get mugged.

The Biden campaign's insistence on having no studio audience robs Trump of the benefit of a clear enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. If the first debate actually happens, that stipulation—combined with the near certainty of softball questions from the moderators—has a nonzero chance of giving Biden a layer of armor against those in his own party who are ready to bail on him.

With the nomination secured in August, Biden will have the chance in September to share a stage with Trump again, making his case directly to the American people eight weeks before the election.

Let's get through the first debate to see if the second one happens.

Mark Davis is a syndicated talk show host for the Salem Media Group on 660AM The Answer in Dallas-Ft. Worth, and a columnist for the Dallas Morning News and Townhall.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.