Jose Miranda's first 365 days in a Twins uniform: The good, the bad and the ugly (2024)

One year ago today, the Twins called up Jose Miranda for the first time.

He debuted in Baltimore on May 2, 2022, going 0-for-4. And in the 365 days since then — minus a 12-hour “phantom” demotion — Miranda has carried the lineup for weeks at a time, battled through several lengthy slumps, switched and re-switched positions, brought his famous cousin to the park, found a mentor in Carlos Correa and put his strengths and weaknesses on display in 153 games.

This seems like a perfect time to pause and take stock of where Miranda stands offensively and defensively after one full year in the big leagues wearing a Twins uniform, along with what the future holds for the 24-year-old third baseman.

Hitting

Miranda initially struggled after being called up last year and got off to another slow start this season, but overall he’s hit .263/.322/.412 with 18 homers and 28 doubles in 600 plate appearances for a 109 OPS+ that’s solidly above the league average scaled to 100. His rep in the minors as an aggressive hitter carried over to the majors with just 37 walks, 25 percent below the leaguewide walk rate.

He swings at substantially more pitches than an average hitter, inside and outside the strike zone, and he is especially prone to swinging at the first pitch of at-bats. Opposing pitchers have predictably reacted to his aggressiveness by throwing him fewer and fewer strikes. As with many young hitters, improved plate discipline will be essential to Miranda’s long-term success.

Miranda’s biggest strength has always been the ability to make solid contact on a high percentage of his swings. It’s why the Twins remained optimistic about his future upside even though his production in the low minors was mediocre. They believed Miranda’s bat-to-ball skills provided the sturdy foundation onto which power could eventually be added, turning him into an impact hitter.

And they were right. Miranda worked with coaches during the 2020 downtime to develop a more discerning eye at the plate and elevate more pitches, leading to a breakout 2021 season in which he hit .344 with 30 homers in the minors. That’s how he went from relative afterthought to Twins minor-league player of the year, and it’s why he now finds himself in the middle of a big-league lineup.

Jose Miranda 💣 x2@Franki2998 || #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/eYDBC9qpt8

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— Bally Sports North (@BallySportsNOR) April 26, 2023

But those same bat-to-ball skills that have been such a big strength throughout Miranda’s career can also turn into his biggest weakness when he falls back into old undisciplined habits. His natural plate approach is very aggressive, but that can get him in trouble because his swings result in a ball’s being put in play far more often than, say, Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton.

“He does get the barrel to more spots in the zone than most hitters,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “That is a strength of his, but shrinking the zone has been important. Setting his sights, setting his eyes in the right space to know what he’s trying to attack. He was just very aggressive. He was of the mindset that he could probably attack everything and get the barrel to everything.”

That means Miranda needs to choose his pitches more carefully and swing with more intent. It’s not enough to avoid strikeouts by hacking at borderline pitches early in counts and putting them in play, because so often that just ends in weak contact and easy outs that are barely better than whiffing. And groundballs can be especially damaging for the slow-footed Miranda.

Miranda grounded into 26 double plays in 153 games, a shockingly high total and a somewhat hidden way in which his hitting has been less valuable than the surface-level numbers suggest. He’s grounded into MLB’s second-most double plays since debuting, and Miranda hit into the most double plays through 153 career games of any player in Twins history. Those are rally killers.

Slow right-handed batters who hit the ball hard are double-play magnets when they pull grounders to third base or shortstop, which is why the all-time leaders are all-time greats Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. Miranda fits that stylistic mold and also exacerbates the issue with overly aggressive swings on borderline pitches that become easy-to-field choppers.

When he reins in the aggressiveness even slightly, still swinging at most strikes but chasing fewer borderline offerings, Miranda forces pitchers to put themselves at more risk by attacking him in the zone. When that happens, his contact skills and all-fields power are an ideal combo that enables him to do damage on both fastballs and off-speed pitches.

He can elevate in-zone fastballs and hanging breaking balls with authority, with 17 of his 18 career homers going to the pull side. But he also can drive outside pitches the other way, wearing out the right-center field gap with singles and doubles. That’s the version of Miranda that looks like a middle-of-the-order fixture, but to be that consistently requires disciplined aggressiveness.

Lin-Manuel Miranda on his cousin, Jose: “To actually have someone from the family make it up to the majors is like an enormous source of pride.” pic.twitter.com/Gk6NwSU9WC

— Betsy Helfand (@betsyhelfand) April 16, 2023

Fielding

Miranda was drafted as a shortstop out of high school in 2016 but gradually slid down the defensive spectrum as he filled out physically, settling in at third base in the upper minors. However, with slick-fielding Gio Urshela manning third base last season, the Twins made room for both players in the lineup by moving Miranda to first base, where he replaced the injured Miguel Sanó.

It wasn’t pretty, as Miranda went through obvious growing pains while learning a new position on the fly, making mental and physical errors. He appeared far more comfortable in sporadic starts at third base but still looked shaky at times. One of the Twins’ first offseason moves was trading Urshela to the Angels for a modest return to clear third base for Miranda.

Miranda spent the winter getting into better shape to prepare for playing third base full time, but a sore right shoulder early in spring training kept him from throwing for several weeks. He was cleared to play third base late in camp and started there Opening Day, but Miranda’s arm slot is noticeably lower than last season and his throws have had less velocity on them.

He lacked prototypical third base arm strength even before the spring shoulder problems, and Miranda’s range is mediocre as well, so there are plays he simply can’t make consistently compared with hot corner standouts. He’s by no means a butcher at third base, but the eye test and fielding metrics agree that he’s been below average through 52 career starts and 469 innings at the position.

It wouldn’t be surprising if more reps and less shoulder soreness led to Miranda’s getting better, but even in the minors many scouts and evaluators viewed him as stretched at third base in terms of physical tools. Of course, not every player can be an above-average defender at their position, and Miranda is certainly capable enough at third base to handle the job without being a major weakness.

Really nice play at third by José Miranda to help Pablo López work around a leadoff single in a scoreless second inning. pic.twitter.com/UztJCgAdit

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) April 16, 2023

Future

Through one year and 153 games in the majors, Miranda looks like something of a tweener, with an above-average bat for third base and a glove that might be better suited for first base or designated hitter. That’s not a big issue right now, as the Twins are content playing him at third base, but that could change fairly soon with the arrival of prospects Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and Austin Martin.

In particular, Lee and Lewis project as core long-term pieces for the Twins and profile best at third base defensively, especially with Correa cemented at shortstop. And if Correa eventually moves off shortstop, it’ll almost surely be to third base. That means the clock may already be ticking on Miranda at third base, and by this time next year may not be the Twins’ best option there.

Moving to first base or designated hitter would put more pressure on Miranda to become a true impact bat rather than the above-average hitter he’s been thus far. First basem*n have out-hit third basem*n by 40 points of OPS leaguewide since 2020, which is a large enough difference that Miranda’s career 109 OPS+ would go from above average at one corner to below average at the other.

Beyond that, Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are among the young hitters who could wind up fitting best at first base or DH, and Buxton could continue seeing regular DH action in the future as well. At the bottom of the defensive spectrum, it’s all about offense, so Miranda would have to fight off plenty of good-hitting competition.

Miranda’s first 365 days in the majors have shown undeniable star potential, but he’s not there yet, and the most likely path to get there involves going from good (109 OPS+) to great (~130 OPS+) at the plate with improved patience creating more consistent power. Miranda has the skills to make that happen, regardless of where he winds up defensively, and his first 153 games are a nice start.

(Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

Aaron Gleeman is a staff writer for The Athletic covering the Minnesota Twins. He was previously the editor-in-chief of Baseball Prospectus and a senior writer for NBC Sports. He was named the 2021 NSMA Minnesota Sportswriter of the Year and co-hosts the "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast. Follow Aaron on Twitter @AaronGleeman