NCAA Basketball: How each former Pac-12 team fits into their new conference — Heat Check CBB (2024)

The Pac-12 is gone, and its former teams will all be moving on to new and (mostly) more challenging conferences across the country.

Conference realignment is one of the most sensitive topics among college sports fans, with some embracing their favorite teams’ new reality. Others, meanwhile, lament that some of the nation’s best intraconference rivalries will be unlikely to continue. In the biggest realignment move since the creation of the American Athletic Conference in 2013, the Pac-12 will disband following the conclusion of the 2023-24 athletic year. As a result, each of its 12 members will join new conferences.

With these conference moves, at least 10 of the teams — excluding Oregon State and Washington State — will be moving to decidedly tougher leagues. With this increase in competition, some programs are destined to struggle while others may compete as soon as they step foot on the court.

How does each former Pac-12 program stack up among their new conference rivals?

Tier 1: The Yearly Contenders

1. Arizona Wildcats (Big 12)

Don’t misjudge what Tommy Lloyd has accomplished in his first three seasons at the helm of the Arizona program based on the relative lack of success in March. The Wildcats have had three straight 27-win seasons, finishing first or second in the Pac-12 each time, and have yet to earn lower than a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Winning the Pac-12 and winning the Big 12 are two completely different animals, of course. Considering Houston’s immediate success in the conference, though, Arizona could reasonably make a similar transition.

In the immediate future, the Wildcats bring in two top-30 recruits (per 247Sports) and add three solid transfers. They could also return one of the best backcourts in the country if both KJ Lewis and Caleb Love withdraw from the NBA Draft. Even if Love departs, a backcourt of Lewis and Jaden Bradley would be competitive in the Big 12. Tommy Lloyd’s style of play would also be a good change of pace in a conference known for its moderate-to-slow pace and elite defensive teams.

As one of the best non-blue bloods in the country, Arizona basketball looks to be entering its healthiest period in over a decade. That should translate to winning, even in the nation’s best conference. Looking at the Big 12 over the next five seasons, the Wildcats should almost certainly rank among the top four programs, and it would not be surprising to see them as preseason favorites at least once in that span.

2. UCLA Bruins (Big Ten)

The Bruins are coming off the program’s worst finish since 2016. However, that came on the heels of a fantastic four-year stretch that included three straight Sweet 16s. Mick Cronin knows how to recruit and has put together an intriguing incoming transfer group after last year’s young team failed to come together at any point in the season. What Cronin sometimes lacks in “likeability,” he makes up for with his teams’ consistent on-court performance. And with Zach Edey gone, the Big Ten is once again a league that should have consistently deep title races every year.

UCLA’s quest for its first Big Ten title starts this season, and they are already being ranked as a top-15-to-20 team as a result. The backcourt pairing of Skyy Clark and Dom Harris could be tumultuous at times, but the ceiling is incredibly high for this group. Plus, another year for the returning sophom*ore class provides some hope for a huge leap heading into the season. The best part about this roster is that only Kobe Johnson and Lazar Stefanovic are entering their final year of eligibility. The Bruins’ relative youth could provide some stable success moving forward, assuming everything goes according to plan.

At the end of the day, UCLA is a blue blood that has been clawing to get back into the nation’s elite for several seasons. As long as last year was the exception and not the rule, the Bruins should continue to fight for conference titles moving forward, even in their new digs. The low floor of last season, however, keeps them from holding the top spot on this list.

Tier 2: The Consistent Competitors

3. USC Trojans (Big Ten)

After the disaster that was the 2023-24 season for USC, it was clear that a change was needed. In perhaps the biggest head coaching upgrade of the 2024 carousel, the Trojans hired former Arkansas and Nevada head coach Eric Musselman to replace the departing Andy Enfield. Musselman’s sideline presence may rub certain people the wrong way, but his approach to the transfer portal and building a team throughout the year has led to more success than failure in his career. Last season was the first time in his nine-year Division I head coaching career that he failed to reach 20 wins. It was also the first time since 2018 that he didn’t produce a top-60 defense on KenPom.

In Year 1, the “Muss Bus” will have two four-star freshmen and a deep rotation of quality transfers driving the team’s success. Transfers have become a staple of Musselman’s teams and should help the Trojans see early success in the Big Ten. Every transfer scored in double digits last season, with five of nine averaging more than 15 points per game. The incoming class may not feature a ton of players from strong defensive programs, but five players have played in an NCAA Tournament game. This new group knows what it takes to win — maybe more so than any of Musselman’s prior groups.

For this list, however, one season is not enough to put USC into the top tier. The combination of Musselman’s coaching ability and USC’s potential recruiting pool should put the Trojans in the top half of the Big Ten most seasons. They might not be on the level of UCLA or Purdue, among others, but this program should make the Big Dance more often than not.

Tier 3: The Middle of the Pack

4. Oregon Ducks (Big Ten)

With the resources Oregon has at its disposal, the program should be in the same tier as USC. Outside of their 2017 trip to the Final Four, however, the program has failed to fully capitalize on its Nike ties — especially over the past three seasons. Four conference championships, eight NCAA Tournaments and three Sweet 16s in 14 seasons is a solid resume for Dana Altman, but you would expect more out of a team with the backing of the biggest sports apparel brand in the world.

In the past three seasons, the Ducks have made just one NCAA Tournament — and they needed a conference tournament title to sneak in as an 11-seed this past March. Whether the issue has been health, misidentifying (or misusing) incoming talent, or a failure for transfers to come together, something in Eugene needs to be fixed before the Ducks can compete atop the Big Ten. Thankfully for Duck fans, Altman may have just the roster to do that.

Entering next season, Oregon is on the fringe of multiple Way-Too-Early Top 25 lists, and their incoming transfer class is a big reason why. To replace the scoring void left by star duo Jermaine Couisnard and N’Faly Dante, Altman has added three double-digit scorers to the roster: TJ Bamba, Brandon Angel and Ra’Heim Moss. This trio, combined with the return of last year’s strong recruiting class and several other role players, should give the Ducks serious breakout potential. However, the lack of cohesion from the previous three teams leaves room for doubt about a smooth transition into the tougher Big Ten.

5. Colorado Buffaloes (Big 12)

As the younger players (including four sophom*ores) continue to grow, the Buffaloes should be a respectable team in the Big 12. However, until then, it may be a difficult next season or two for Tad Boyle and this Colorado program. The toughness should be there, though, which means the program will compete as the talent and experience continue to grow.

6. Washington State Cougars (WCC)

It is incredibly difficult to forecast Washington State’s future until we have a clearer picture of what their permanent conference affiliation will be. For the next two seasons, though, the Cougars will compete in the West Coast Conference — where they should be a consistent top-half team despite a coaching change and the ensuing exodus of talent. Pullman is not an easy place to recruit, though. Whether the Cougars remain in the WCC or eventually create a “new Pac-12,” the clear downgrade in conference affiliation could wind up hurting the program in the long run.

While new coach David Riley is a promising up-and-comer, coming off two straight Big Sky regular season championships at Eastern Washington, his teams’ lack of postseason success and questionable defense cannot be ignored. Both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s have become NCAA Tournament staples, which means Washington State will probably compete with San Francisco, Santa Clara, and eventually Grand Canyon for third place in the conference. If they work with Oregon State to rebuild the Pac-12, they will be in a conference that will likely feature Gonzaga alongside the top Mountain West programs — all of which are in similar or better spots to Wazzu.

Building a consistent winner at Washington State is one of the most difficult tasks for coaches out west. Kyle Smith took three seasons before delivering the program’s first 20-win season in over a decade, and five years for its first NCAA Tournament appearance since the Tony Bennett era.

7. Arizona State Sun Devils (Big 12)

Before you roll your eyes at seeing the Sun Devils this high, consider this: head coach Bobby Hurley has put together one of the deepest and most talented rosters he has ever had at Arizona State. The incoming class is the second-best of the Hurley era, per 247Sports. On the other hand, his highest-ranked class arrived in 2019 — just before the COVID-impacted season — and amassed the program’s lowest win total since 2012.

The incoming freshmen include three top-100 prospects, including top-10 center Jayden Quaintance. The transfer portal was not quite as kind to the Sun Devils as it has been in years past, but Hurley managed to plug several holes after losing Frankie Collins and Jamiya Neal to the portal. Perhaps the most notable transfer addition comes via the return of junior guard Austin Nunez, who spent one season at Ole Miss after his freshman year in Tempe.

Ultimately, there are a lot of reasons to doubt Arizona State’s ability to right the ship. The program has just three winning seasons in the Pac-12 in the past nine years under Hurley. The Sun Devils have made the NCAA Tournament just three times, and Hurley’s overall winning percentage at ASU is just over 54 percent. Despite these concerns, the talent is still coming to Arizona State, and Hurley is the type of coach that should be capable of clearing the hurdles placed in front of him. Will the Sun Devils ever compete for a Big 12 title? Probably not, but they probably won’t be complete failures, either.

Tier 4: The Struggle Bus

8. Washington Huskies (Big Ten)

If there was ever a roster that was built to match the casual fan’s view of the Big Ten, it would be that of the Washington Huskies. First-year head coach Danny Sprinkle got right to work amassing talent, but the cogs just didn’t seem to fit together on paper. At one point, five of the 12 scholarship players in the fold had played a majority of their minutes at the 5-spot last year. Meanwhile, the point guard position was notably undermanned.

This “all-big, no-point” roster appeared bound for issues as players would eventually need to settle into brand-new roles. Even after Sprinkle filled the point guard spot this week with the signing of Tyree Ihenacho, Washington’s depth at that crucial position consists of 2-guard DJ Davis and a pair of freshman combo guards. If it works, UW’s ceiling is still probably no higher than the middle third of the Big Ten. If the experiment fails, the Huskies could be among the bottom three or four teams in the conference. Sprinkle has excelled over the past five seasons at Utah State and Montana State, but while this roster fits well into his defense-focused approach, the lack of a clear identity on offense is cause for concern.

The school’s location in Seattle, however, could provide a jumpstart to the program if Sprinkle can lure in the local talent. And similar to Cal, Washington should continue to improve after the disaster that was the end of the Lorenzo Romar era and most of the Mike Hopkins era. The Huskies should eventually nip into the middle of the conference, but it might take longer than most fans would like.

9. California Golden Bears (ACC)

Of all the programs in the Pac-12 diaspora, California may have the best chance to break out in its new conference. Not only does the ACC have a shallower pool of top-end teams, but Cal also saw immediate improvement under first-year head coach Mark Madsen last season. The Golden Bears jumped from 270th on KenPom to 121st, and they turned in their second-highest win total since 2017.

In the 25 years before the Wyking Jones and Mark Fox tenures, Cal was historically a consistent bubble team. In six seasons under Jones and Fox, though, the Golden Bears failed to record a single 15-win season — a total reached or surpassed in 22 of the previous 25 seasons under five different coaches. The biggest remaining hurdle for Madsen comes down to recruiting. Cal’s current student population does not support athletics with the same fervor it did in the past, and the admissions standards for athletes are higher than most high-major programs. Perhaps most importantly, Cal is playing catch-up when it comes to competing in the NIL market.

Madsen has already proven to be an improvement for a program that had struck out with its previous two coaches. However, Cal couldn’t even turn in a winning record in the Pac-12, and the ACC should be a much tougher league. Madsen should continue to help the Golden Bears climb, and this year’s transfer class brings further optimism to the program. Still, until we see the results play out on the floor, a top-half finish in the ACC seems like a long shot.

10. Utah Utes (Big 12)

Utah will join the Big 12 as they look to replace four of their top five scorers from last season. Head coach Craig Smith is bringing in a transfer class that currently consists of four role players, as well as a high school class that will likely produce one player for next year’s roster. That just won’t cut it in the Big 12, especially when one of those transfers was already a deep bench piece in the conference.

The Utes simply lack the athleticism and high-end talent needed to compete in the Big 12, especially in Year 1. If Gabe Madsen is the star and Lawson Lovering is the second- or third-best player, there will be clear limitations to what this team can do in its new league. Madsen and Lovering are not bad players, but they are better role players than first-option scorers.

Moving forward, Utah probably doesn’t get much better than they were last year — and those Utes would have ranked in the bottom five of the Big 12 (per KenPom). If that is the ceiling for Utah, it will be hard for this program to make much noise in the new league. If the Utes can catch fire in a bottle and sustain it, that would be incredible for the school. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem likely considering the recent history of the program.

11. Stanford Cardinal (ACC)

Kyle Smith is a fantastic head coach and the perfect fall-back option after Stanford fired Jerod Haase (a decision that came perhaps a year too late). Smith has experience recruiting against rigid academic restrictions from his time in the Ivy League, and he led Washington State to its first NCAA Tournament since Tony Bennett made back-top-back dances in the late 2000s. He has his work cut out for him in Palo Alto, but Smith’s ability to maximize talent should prove a nice contrast to Haase’s struggles with several five-star recruits.

The 2024-25 roster is built around leading scorer Maxime Raynaud, who won Pac-12 Most Improved Player after averaging a near double-double. Smith still has a lot to do in the offseason, however, as the Cardinal currently have a relatively underwhelming roster, especially by ACC standards. Oziyah Sellers is a solid transfer, and Derin Saran was an effective role player for UC Irvine. Beyond them, Smith adds a group of three-star freshman and former lacrosse player Cole Kastner. That will not be enough to compete in Year 1 without another major addition or two.

Moving forward, there is a bit more optimism for Stanford. The travel will be tough, but their new coach has found success at every stop he has made thus far. It will take some doing, but it isn’t out of the question for the Cardinal to find itself in NCAA Tournament conversations every few years as their talent gets older and more experienced.

Tier 5: The Bottom Feeders

12. Oregon State Beavers (WCC)

This is maybe the easiest team to tier. It has now been three full seasons since Oregon State’s miraculous Elite Eight run, and the Beavers have just 11 total Pac-12 wins in that span. Unlike Washington State, this ranking does not depend on their conference affiliation after the next two seasons. The Beavers would have been, on average, the seventh- or eighth-best team in the WCC over the past three years, and even worse in the Mountain West. This program looks poised to struggle wherever it calls home.