VarietyAwards Circuitsection is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars,Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated byVarietysenior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS|EMMYS|GRAMMYS|TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov 21, 2024): The best actress race is beginning to heat up.
Emerging as a viable contender in the race is Cynthia Erivo, who stars as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s highly anticipated “Wicked.” A Tony Award winner for “The Color Purple” and an Oscar nominee for “Harriet,” Erivo brings depth and nuance to her portrayal of the “wicked” witch, whose journey in the land of Oz is marked by a profound yearning for acceptance despite her magical powers. However, musical performances can be hit-or-miss with the Academy, and Erivo’s Oscar chances will likely depend on “Wicked’s” overall reception. The Academy has a history of favoring supporting performances from musicals, so Erivo’s lead status could either work in her favor or present a challenge.
Noteworthy, a nom for Erivo would make her only the second Black woman to receive two lead actress nominations (after Viola Davis) and the second performance from a musical since Dorothy Dandridge for “Carmen Jones” (1954), who is the first Black woman ever nominated in the category.
Historically, the best actress category has posed a unique hurdle for musical leads. Emma Stone’s win for “La La Land” (2016) was the last notable exception. Before that, Renée Zellweger’s nomination for “Chicago” (2002) marked a rare recognition of musical talent in the lead actress category. Erivo also faces intense competition from Karla Sofia Gascón, who stars in Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez.” Gascón’s portrayal of the title character brings a fresh complexity to the category, and she has the chance to make history as the first transgender performer nominated for Best Actress. Beyond this landmark possibility, it’s exceptionally rare for the Academy to recognize two musical performances in the same year. The last instance was in 1964 when Julie Andrews earned a nomination for “Mary Poppins” alongside Debbie Reynolds for “The Unsinkable Molly Brown.” That year, the best picture winner was the musical “My Fair Lady,” with Audrey Hepburn famously snubbed in the best actress race — a reminder of the Academy’s unpredictable approach to musical leads.
Established A-listers and previous Oscar winners such as Angelina Jolie for “Maria” and Tilda Swinton for “The Room Next Door” have been added to the category, and both are expected to garner serious consideration. The field also sees a groundswell of critical support for Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose revelatory role in Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” has made her a significant contender. Meanwhile, Saoirse Ronan is positioning herself for a notable awards run, with lead and supporting bids in two films: the recovery drama “The Outrun” and the World War II epic “Blitz.”
And then there’s the young ingenues rising to the top. In a bold reimagining of the rom-com classic “Pretty Woman,” Sean Baker’s “Anora” stars Mikey Madison as a high-end sex worker, delivering a layered performance that skillfully combines glamor and vulnerability. Madison’s portrayal has made her one of the year’s standout talents. As the film’s momentum grows, she’s becoming a serious contender for her first Oscar nomination — possibly even a win. If Madison, 25, won the Oscar for best actress, she would become one of the youngest winners in history, just behind Hilary Swank, who won at the same age for her influential role in “Boys Don’t Cry” (1999). But with the competition heating up as the season unfolds, her path to victory is far from guaranteed.
The updated best actress prediction charts are below.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’sAwards Circuit.
The 97thOscarswill be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon) 2 Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) 3 Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix) 4 Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 5 Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) 7 Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24) 8 Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) 9 Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) 10 Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi) Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 Pamela Anderson — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions) 12 Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) 13 June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) 14 Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) 15 Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) 16 Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) 17 Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) 18 Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 19 Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions) 20 Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Kerry Washington — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) 22 Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24) 23 Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) 24 Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24) 25 Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 26 Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix) 27 Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 28 Naomi Scott — “Smile 2” (Paramount Pictures) 29 Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24) 30 Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix) Eligible Performers (Best Actress)
This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- Divya Prabha — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
- Renate Reinsve — “Armand” (IFC Films)
- Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Marisa Abela — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- Naomi Ackie — “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) **
- Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24)
- Vicky Krieps — “The Dead Don’t Hurt” (Shout! Studios)
- Andra Day — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Margaret Qualley — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) **
- Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon) **
- Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Alicia Vikander — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- Brandy Norwood — “The Front Room” (A24)
- Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- Lily Collias — “Good One” (Metrograph Pictures)
- Lucy Boynton — “The Greatest Hits” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
- Anne Hathaway — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
- Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Blake Lively — “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
- Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24)
- Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
- Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Pamela Anderson — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Kristen Stewart — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix)
- Nathalie Emmanuel — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) **
- Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Aubrey Plaza — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Celeste Dalla Porta — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Stefania Sandrelli — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Lupita Nyong’o — “A Quiet Place: Day One” (Paramount Pictures)
- Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Riley Keough — “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
- Kerry Washington — “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan — “Spaceman” (Netflix) **
- Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- Nico Parker — “Suncoast” (Searchlight Pictures)
- June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “Tuesday” (A24)
- Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Jessie Buckley — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Olivia Colman — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Lupita Nyong’o — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- Maya Hawke — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Pictures)
- Anna Kendrick — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
- Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
More Information (Oscars: Best Actress)
2024 category winner: Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
