Tunisia, Saied re-elected with 90,6 percent of votes: "The national liberation struggle continues" (2025)

The outgoing president of Tunisia, Kais Saied, was re-elected with 90,69 percent of the votes. This was announced by the head of the Independent High Authority for Elections (Isie), Farouk Bouasker, during the press conference held at the Palais des Congrès in Tunis.

According to the preliminary results announced, Saied has obtained the preference of 2.438.954 voters and thus wins a second term at the head of the country. In second place was placed Ayachi Zammel with 197.551 votes (7,35 percent), followed by trade unionist Zouhair Maghzaoui with only 52.903 votes (1,97 percent).

Saied said he would continue his “national liberation struggle” until 2029. Speaking from his campaign headquarters, flanked by his wife Ichraf Chebil, Sayed commented on the data released by national television and the Independent High Authority for Elections (ISEE). Heading towards a second five-year term, the president thanked his supporters, saying that "Tunisia is experiencing the completion of the revolution". The head of state promised to "build and create, as the people want", and to "cleanse the country of corrupt people and conspirators". "I am not exaggerating when I say conspirators", he added, praising the "unprecedented historical resilience" of Tunisians. Saied also reiterated that Tunisia will remain independent and free, rejecting any interference in the country's internal affairs.

“The Tunisian people are leading a new revolution, based on legislation and voting to change an obsolete political system,” said some of Saied’s supporters, interviewed by “Agenzia Nova” during the post-election night. In his latest campaign video, the president of Tunisia and candidate for a second term expressed “pride in seeing the Tunisian people demonstrate a strong sense of patriotism in the face of those who seek to implode the country from within”. Saied reiterated that “it is the people who hold power, and their choices will be decisive for the future of Tunisia”, repeatedly recalling the “historic moments” that the nation has gone through, from the Jasmine Revolution of 17 December 2010 to the radical change of 25 July 2021, when Parliament and the government were dissolved. The president then mentioned the country’s future challenges, placing among his priorities the restoration of trust in state institutions, the provision of quality health and education services and the strengthening of the prestige of the public administration.

Saied's victory had been taken for granted since the launch of the electoral campaign on September 14. According to projections by the Sigma Conseil institute, Ayachi Zammel, leader of the Azimoun party, detained since September 3 on charges of falsifying the popular recommendations for the candidacy, collected 6,9 percent of the votes. Zouhair Maghzaoui, a former parliamentarian of Nasserist leanings and trade unionist, stopped at 3,9 percent. The preliminary results will be announced tonight at 19:00 p.m. (20:00 p.m. Italian time) by the Isie and the final results will be known no later than October 9 and will be made official on October 24, after the period for the evaluation of any appeals, which will be evaluated by the ordinary Justice, the Court of Tunis and the Court of Cassation, and no longer by the Administrative Court. In fact, on September 27, the Assembly of People's Representatives (Arp) adopted the proposed amendment to the electoral law during an extraordinary plenary session. The bill, presented by 34 deputies, was treated as an urgent and priority matter and excluded the Administrative Court from the electoral process. The protests that accompanied the vote were in vain, with an opposition that continues to denounce an “authoritarian drift of the State”.

The turnout rate for the presidential election in Tunisia stood at 27,7 percent, 28,5 percent at home and 16,3 percent abroad. A figure commented positively by Isie, up compared to the 2022 legislative elections (11,4 percent) and the referendum of the same year (27,2), but still down compared to the first round of the 2019 presidential elections (48,9 percent with 3,465,184 total votes). 2.704.155 voters out of 9.753.217 eligible voters cast their ballots. 42 percent of voters are women and 58 percent are men, 29 percent are over 60, 65 percent are between 36 and 60, only 18 percent are young people between 18 and 35.

Kais Saied, 66, a nationalist and law professor known for his mastery of literary Arabic, undertook a major reform project during his first term. This process began with the dismissal of the government and parliament on 25 July 2021 and culminated with the approval of a new constitution by referendum on 25 July 2022, effectively transforming Tunisia into a presidential republic. On the economic front, Saied chose to reject a loan of around two billion dollars proposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), preferring to rely on internal resources and the support of international partners who do not interfere in the country's internal affairs. In the field of migration, Tunisia declared its maritime search and rescue (SAR) zone and stepped up the fight against criminal organizations involved in human trafficking, particularly of sub-Saharan migrants, while strengthening cooperation with Italy and the European Union.

Many challenges await Saied as he begins his second term. Among the most urgent is regaining the trust of young people and offering them concrete opportunities for a dignified life in Tunisia. Many young people, frustrated by the lack of prospects, seek to leave the country: the most educated and middle-class prefer legal routes, while others, especially in rural areas, face the perilous journey across the Mediterranean on makeshift boats. Those who choose to stay often come up against an inefficient bureaucracy, which hinders entrepreneurship rather than promotes it, making the country's economic recovery even more difficult.

In the second quarter of 2024, Tunisia’s economic growth reached 1 percent, improving from 0,3 percent in the previous quarter, due to difficulties in the construction, mining and energy sectors. Economic growth is expected to continue to pick up in the third quarter, driven by the recovery in domestic and external demand. In the first eight months of 2024, the trade deficit remained stable, while improvements in the services and income balances reduced the current account deficit to 2,130 billion dinars from 3,105 billion dinars in August 2023. This consolidated foreign exchange reserves at 25,654 billion dinars, equivalent to 116 days of imports. The dinar maintained some resilience, reducing external price pressures. Tunisia faces major maturities: a $1 billion eurobond in January 2025 and another for €700 million in July 2026. Fitch expects fiscal financing needs in 2024 to be 18 percent of GDP, remaining above 14 percent in 2025-2026, well above the 9 percent average recorded between 2015 and 2019. Public debt is expected to remain above 80 percent of GDP in the coming years, making the country vulnerable to fiscal shocks and fluctuations in commodity prices.