Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (2024)

1. Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks

Day 1 · Day 3 · SPC Day 2 · 1300 UTC
SPC Convective Outlook Products Page

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2. NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center

Convective Outlooks · Day 1 Convective Outlook · Day 2 Convective Outlook · News
Latest SPC Publications

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3. SPC Convective Outlooks - National Weather Service

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks. To view a product, move your mouse over any of the product labels below.
SPC Convective

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4. [PDF] Storm Prediction Center Severe Risk Categories

• The categorical forecast specifies the level of the overall severe weather threat via numbers (e.g., 5), descriptive labeling (e.g., HIGH), and colors ...

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5. What the Storm Prediction Center's Thunderstorm Outlook Means

16 mrt 2021 · Example of a convective outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Not a current forecast. These forecasts are based on current trends in ...
When meteorologists discuss slight, moderate or high severe risks, here's what that all means. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

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6. Storm Prediction Center Data - DaculaWeather.com

Storm Prediction Center · Current Activity, Convective Watches, and Mesoscale Discussions · Latest Mesoscale Discussion · Southeast Radar Loop · Click for Large SE ...
DaculaWeather.com is a private weather site featuring live current conditions, Dacula weather forecast, radar, satellite, maps, news and more.
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Disneyland Haunted Mansion & Tiana's Bayou Adventure CONSTRUCTION Report, Plus Surprise Addition Revealed TitkTop 2024 Gifts Guides for Gen Z | Student Spill | Yugo Craigslist Auto Parts Tulsa Volume 15 No. 1 April 2016 · Jhun A. Mayugba, and Daisy Ann A. Disu 13 Impact Assessment of the Mathematics Training Series Joshua A. Caburian, Mary Rose L. Maglaya, Almar Bryan - [PDF Document]

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7. What is a “Convective Outlook” from the Storm Prediction Center and ...

29 dec 2021 · This means that no ...
Severe weather is a common occurrence in the Mid-South, and when it comes to strong and severe storms, understanding what the colors and text means could better help you prepare for incoming severe weather.

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8. IEM :: Features Tagged: spc - Iowa Environmental Mesonet

The Storm Prediction Center issues a number of products including a convective outlook, which provides a spatial analysis of severe weather risk. For the "Day 1 ...
Iowa Environmental Mesonet of Iowa State University

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9. SPC Outlooks — Pivotal Weather

Forecast data is produced manually by expert meteorologists at the NWS Storm Prediction Center. See their site for the most up-to-date official forecasts.
High-resolution maps of essential U.S. weather data: NWS/NOAA forecasts and warnings, estimated rainfall and snowfall over the last few days, and more.

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10. Explaining the Storm Prediction Center convective outlooks

The Day 1 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center from March 31st, 2023 showing a high risk for severe weather for portions of Iowa, Illinois, ...
The Day 1 convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center from March 31st, 2023 showing a high risk for severe weather for portions of Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. (WLUK)

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11. Exploring the Differences in SPC Convective Outlook Interpretation ...

ABSTRACT: While previous work has shown that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks accurately capture meteorological outcomes, evidence ...

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12. The SPC 5-point severe thunderstorm risk category scale explained

... severe weather over ... When severe weather is possible, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center ... SECRETS OF THE SPC: HOW DAILY CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ARE MADE.
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Rockhurst University
When severe weather is lurking in the neighborhood, you'll likely see social media posts referencing "SPC" risks such as "Slight," "Enhanced," "Moderate" or “High.”

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13. NWS Storm Prediction Center (@NWSSPC) / X

Official Twitter account for the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. Details: https://t.co/mRyGMdRYT3.
Something went wrong, but don’t fret — let’s give it another shot.

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14. SPC Convective Outlook + Discussion + Watch Search by Point - IEM

This application allows you to search an archive of Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Convective Outlooks, Mesoscale Convective Discussions (MCD)s, and Convective ...
Iowa Environmental Mesonet of Iowa State University

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15. Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks - F5Weather

Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks. Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8.
Convective Outlooks, Tornado, Hail & Wind Outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.

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16. [PDF] The Impact of the Storm Prediction Center's Convective Outlooks and ...

11 jun 2021 · For many emergency managers (EMs) and National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, Convective Outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center ...

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17. All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days

Outlook Images. overview. tornado 10%. wind 15%. hail 15%. Detailed Outlook. SPC AC 070510. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 ...
show me my personal outlook →

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18. NWS Day 1 Convective Outlook - Foresthill Weather.com

5 dagen geleden · Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook. SPC AC 040536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat ...
Weather conditions for Foresthill, California

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19. Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 Convective Outlooks ...

1. Introduction. The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issues forecast products that provide information about the threat of severe ...
Abstract The Storm Prediction Center has issued daily convective outlooks since the mid-1950s. This paper represents an initial effort to examine the quality of these forecasts. Convective outlooks are plotted on a latitude–longitude grid with 80-km grid spacing and evaluated using storm reports to calculate verification measures including the probability of detection, frequency of hits, and critical success index. Results show distinct improvements in forecast performance over the duration of the study period, some of which can be attributed to apparent changes in forecasting philosophies.

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20. Michigan severe weather forecast: Which areas could see storms ...

21 uur geleden · The Severe Weather Prediction Center has most of the Lower Peninsula, including Metro Detroit, in the “marginal” risk category for severe storms ...
Michigan could see severe weather, including an isolated tornado, on Tuesday.

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21. TCF - TFM Convective Forecast - Aviation Weather Center

4, 6, & 8 Hour TFM Convective Forecast. No Canadian TCF Convection is not expected to reach TCF criteria 340 >400 390 05Z Tue.
High confidence forecast of thunderstorm coverage

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22. ECCC Thunderstorm Outlooks

FOCN45 CWWG 271900. SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT SATURDAY ...
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23. Another late week storm system to watch - WCHS

SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday (03/25). Enhanced risk of severe ... NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook for Thursday (03/25) - Regional View.
SPC Convective Outlook for Thursday (03/25). Enhanced risk of severe storms in the Orange color.{p}{/p}

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Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook (2024)

FAQs

How long is a convective outlook valid? ›

Convective Outlook Issuance Times

Each Day 1 Convective Outlook is valid from the start of issuance (except for the 0600 UTC issuance which begins at 1200 UTC that day) through 1200 UTC the following day (except for the 0100 UTC issuance which is valid through that day).

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How often does NoAA update convective Outlook? ›

The Convective Outlook is issued 5 times daily: at 06Z (the initial day-1 outlook, valid 12Z that day until 12Z the following day), 13Z and 1630Z (the "morning updates," valid until 12Z the next day), 20Z (the "afternoon update," valid until 12Z the next day), and the 01Z (the "evening update," valid until 12Z the ...

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What does a convective outlook show? ›

Convective Outlook

(sometimes called AC) - A forecast containing the area(s) of expected thunderstorm occurrence and expected severity over the contiguous United States, issued several times daily by the SPC.

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What are the risk categories in a convective outlook? ›

Three risk categories (SLGT, MDT, and HIGH) are used to symbolize the coverage and intensity of the expected severe weather threat. A SLGT risk implies well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected, but in small numbers and/or low coverage.

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Should you fly in a convective outlook? ›

Moral of the story, don't fly under, or anywhere near thunderstorms. Hail and downdrafts along with severe turbulence can easily reach 20 miles from the EDGE of a thunderstorm into clear air where you wouldn't expect it (due to winds aloft, etc.).

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Is a 5% tornado risk high? ›

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center puts Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, Roseville and Elk Grove at the highest risk — 5% — of getting hit by a tornado Monday, with Concord, Vallejo, Antioch, Fairfield, Vacaville and Livermore at a 2% risk.

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How accurate are NOAA predictions? ›

A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

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Has there ever been a day 3 moderate risk? ›

Day 3 moderate risks are quite rare; these have been issued only twenty times since the product became operational (most recently for March 22, 2022). Day 3 high risks are never issued and the operational standards do not allow for such.

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When was the last EF5 tornado? ›

The nation's last EF-5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013.

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Is a tornado a convective storm? ›

So, what is a convective storm? It is the collective name for severe thunderstorms, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail and tornadoes. Depending on your location around the world, the intensity of these storms differs.

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How long do convective storms last? ›

A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is a collection of thunderstorms that act as a system. An MCS can spread across an entire state and last more than 12 hours. On radar one of these monsters might appear as a solid line, a broken line, or a cluster of cells.

Which index is better for forecasting severe weather? ›

As such, the SWEAT index should be utilized to assess severe weather potential, not ordinary thunderstorm potential.

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What are the top 5 risk categories? ›

As indicated above, the five types of risk are operational, financial, strategic, compliance, and reputational. Let's take a closer look at each type: Operational. The possibility that things might go wrong as the organization goes about its business.

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What are the 5 levels of risk severity? ›

After deciding the probability of the risk happening, you may now establish the potential level of impact—if it does happen. The levels of risk severity in a 5×5 risk matrix are insignificant, minor, significant, major, and severe.

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Is a hurricane a convective storm? ›

Overview. There are three main types of convective storms: airmass thunderstorms, severe thunderstorms and hurricanes. These storms are all driven by the release of latent heat into the atmosphere during condensation of water vapor.

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How long is a convective Sigmet Outlook valid for? ›

Both the convective SIGMETs and outlooks are issued at 55 minutes after the hour, on an hourly basis. The valid period for standard outlooks is 4 h, beginning 2 h after the issuance time; convective SIGMETs are valid for a 2-h period beginning at the issuance time.

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How long does a convective Sigmet last? ›

Convective SIGMET

They are issued at 55 minutes past the hour but can be issued any time in the interim as needed. They are valid for 2 hours. Convective SIGMETS are issued for three zones, Eastern, Central, and Western United States.

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How long is a forecast valid for? ›

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

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How long is the area forecast valid for? ›

the standard validity period is twelve hours but this may vary from state to state. an Area Forecast covering daylight hours will be available as soon as practicable in the morning. Area Forecasts will generally be available a minimum of one hour before commencement of validity.